Recruiting in China

Ashish R. Thadhani (Gilford Securities) recently sent a note to clients raising his price target for 51job, Inc. (JOBS) based on the Company's strong Q406 results. Key excerpts follow:

* Investment Conclusion. After incorporating stepped-up S&M – funded by lower G&A and near-term taxation -- we are maintaining our estimates: 2007 GAAP EPADS at $0.60 on net revenue of $100 million (20% YoY growth and up from our prior $99 million projection); and 2008 GAAP EPADS at $0.80 on unchanged net revenue of $122 million (22% YoY growth). Due to the late Chinese New Year, our 1Q07 assumptions reflect a shorter peak recruiting period of five weeks vs. eight a year ago. We are raising our target from $26 to $28. In 12-months, this would correspond to 35x forward GAAP EPS of $0.80. Our recommendation is backed by an EV of $344 million or 20x forward earnings plus continued purchases by CEO Yan. We also point out 1) recent newspaper alliances in the U.S. should validate the 51job online/offline model to maximize local reach; and 2) 2007 is expected to be the last year in investment mode for rival ChinaHR.com, which remains much smaller and less profitable than 51job.
* 4Q06 Results. GAAP EPADS of $0.09 vs. $0.08 a year ago on net revenue of $20.8 million (23% YoY growth) matched our $0.09 estimate on net revenue of $20.1 million. Non-GAAP EPADS of $0.14 vs. $0.10 also met our $0.14 expectation. 51job posted positive variances in print advertising revenue and G&A expenses – offset by gross margin and S&M spend. Non-operating interest, subsidies, forex and tax variances offset each other. Revenue was driven by online recruitment services, which advanced 37% YoY to 34% of the total. Operating income of $2.6 million (12.6% margin) was right in line with our estimate of $2.5 million (12.5%). Other highlights included diminished seasonality (-4% QoQ) and clear market leadership based on online postings, traffic quality and pricing -- despite competitor claims to the contrary. Metrics showed growth in print advertising page-count (+33% YoY from a depressed level) and lower revenue per page (-14% in dollar terms due to seasonal promotions and city-mix); and moderating growth in the number of employers using online services (+30%) with steady revenue per employer (+5%). Net cash climbed to $111.3 million (~$3.90 per ADS) from $104.5 million on September 30.

Noteworthy developments

December 2006. In an SEC filing, Recruit Co. disclosed an increase in its holdings to 5.1 million ADS equivalents (18% ownership stake).

November 2006. CEO Rick Yan reported additional market purchases totaling 317K ADSs at an average price of $16.04 between November 13-22. This activity took his ownership to 8.6 million ADS equivalents or 30% of the total. Separately, the class action lawsuit against 51job and its officers, which followed a 4Q04 EPADS shortfall, was dismissed.

September 2006. CEO Rick Yan reported market/private purchases totaling 818K ADS equivalents at an average price of $14.57 during the 30 days ended September 13. This activity took his ownership to 8.2 million ADS equivalents -- well above what is covered under the agreement with Recruit.

August 2006. 51job announced an exclusive partnering agreement with CareerBuilder.com (owned by Gannett, Tribune and McClatchy), under which the two sites will have links that provide job posting and resume access.

June 2006. Mr. Charles E. Phillips, Jr. – President of Oracle (ORCL) – resigned from the board citing personal reasons. Mr. Phillips had served as a director for two years.

April 2006. In a private transaction, existing shareholders comprising management and Doll Capital Management [DCM] sold to Recruit Co. the equivalent of 4.2 million ADSs (or 15% of the total) at $26 each (47% market premium). Recruit holds a three-year option to purchase an additional 25% stake from these shareholders at the higher of two prices: 1) floor of $26 per ADS – as long as JOBS does not drop below $10 at the time; or 2) 15% market premium with a $51 cap. If exercised, management ownership would decline (from 50% before April 2005) to 35% and that of DCM (from 25%) to nil. Separately, 51job entered into a business alliance with Recruit that will explore new information service opportunities in China. Founded in 1963, privately held Recruit is the leading provider of HR services in Japan. It also provides information services across diverse businesses such as learning, real estate, automobiles and coupons. In fiscal (Mar.) 2005, Recruit operating income exceeded $1 billion on sales of $3.5 billion.

October 2005. 51job signed a letter of intent to purchase a $14 million service and headquarters complex in Shanghai, which it began occupying in late-2006... July 2005. The Chinese government changed its currency policy. Over time, anticipated Renminbi appreciation should translate into higher dollar-denominated operating income, offset by near-term currency translation losses.

May 2005. Shareholders approved a $25 million stock repurchase program over a 12-month period. In 2H05, 51job repurchased 686K ADSs at an average price of $13.65.

February 2005. Monster Worldwide acquired a 40% stake in rival ChinaHR.com for $50 million – or 9x 2005E revenue of $14 million (up 100% YoY and 70% online). At the time, ChinaHR.com had 3.2 million registered users and 480 employees in 10 major cities. In 1Q06, Monster increased its ownership to 44.4%. It acquired shares from existing holders for $20 million, implicitly valuing ChinaHR.com at $450 million. Monster expects to assume full control of this subsidiary in early-2008. Financial backing by Monster has not altered the competitive landscape materially. However, 51job does anticipate heated competition until such time that ChinaHR.com – which is likely to remain unprofitable through 2007 – becomes directly answerable to public shareholders.

January 2005. 51job pre-announced a 41% shortfall vs. 4Q04 EPADS guidance due to unprecedented revenue softness in late-December. The sudden (post-IPO) slowdown was attributed to a shift in budget allocations to earlier quarters of the year – borne out in 4Q05 – and moderation of overall demand from ~70% YoY growth.

September 2004. 51job raised net proceeds of $76.8 million from its IPO at $14 per ADS.

Investment Thesis

51job is enviably placed to capitalize on the rapidly evolving market for HR services in China – by applying a proven business model across its vast labor force (5x U.S.). Compared with traditional job search channels such as referrals and fairs, pioneers like 51job offer significant reach and speed advantages. Favorable demographic drivers include GDP growth (~10% in recent years), Internet usage (ranked #2 behind the U.S.), an aging workforce and increasing private, urban and service sector employment. iResearch forecasts that the total recruitment market in China will increase from $570 million to $1.26 billion in 2005-10, implying 17% compound annual growth. During this period, the online recruitment segment is expected to advance from $100 million (18% of the total) to $570 million (45%), or 42% compound annual growth. Superior positioning includes: premium brand/pricing; a comprehensive online/offline offering; wide geographic presence (25 cities); large direct sales force (over 1,200 representatives); and unmatched job seeker database (access to more than 11 million resumes for professional, clerical, industrial and hourly jobs). EPS visibility stands to benefit from top-line, profitability and taxation drivers. Specifically, ramp-up of online subscriptions (from single-digit penetration of client budgets at present); a scalable model offering 30%-plus operating margin (excluding share-based compensation); and initiatives to avail of tax incentives.

JOBS is suitable for aggressive investors. In our opinion, principal risks include the following:

* Deterioration of economic conditions in China, slowing of hiring activity or a “hard landing” scenario.
* Competition from ChinaHR.com and Internet portals could pressure future profitability by way of lower pricing and/or higher marketing expenses.
* Rapid online migration could result in cannibalization of offline revenue.
* Despite recent improvement, 51job has an inconsistent execution record.
* Uncertainties in the PRC regulatory and legal system, particularly laws governing foreign ownership and licensing/operation of HR and Internet business entities. Note that 51job is incorporated as a holding company in the Cayman Islands.
* Disruptions such as spread of the H5N1 virus or a recurrence of SARS, political unrest, breakdown in relationship with a major publishing/distribution contractor, etc.
* Influence of Recruit Co. and current management over all matters requiring a shareholder vote.
* Correction in the U.S. markets.

Reviewed by Michael Jen-Siu

Tim Cole, a magician from Las Vegas, Nevada, met me in a Beijing coffee shop about two years ago and said he had been cheated out of US$127,000 because his Chinese business partner canceled several performances in violation of their contract. The partner also stuck Cole with the trans-Pacific shipping bill for the show equipment, he told me.

His story followed a series of interviews I had done with the

owners of a Hong Kong engineering company that lost a large hotel to court receivership in Dandong, northeastern China, because the Dandong partner tried to pass off its own loans on the Hong Kong side.

I remember these two cases because they go against the overwhelming majority of China business news stories, which generally follow China's fast-track investment deregulation and the natural flood of foreign businesses entering an anticipated record- sized consumer market. But the magician and the engineering firm showed paperwork to prove that they had been cheated despite the hype.

The Chinese Negotiator, a topically overdue book published this year, suggests that the magician or the engineering firms might have misunderstood their Chinese counterparts when they agreed to do business together. Maybe Cole or the engineering firm upset their local partners during contract negotiations, I started to imagine. Maybe they didn't even have a solid enough deal before business began.

Authors Robert March, a negotiator and consultant since 1985, and Wu Su-hua, an entrepreneur for 25 years in Taiwan and Australia, provide 280 pages of tips on how to negotiate with teams of stoic chain-smokers who don't say what they're thinking. They tell foreign companies to negotiate according to a 12-step process and to pick a team with refined social graces and a taste for Chinese food. They explain why foreign teams must come to the table as a unified front but with a clear leader and every other member assigned non-conflicting responsibilities to avoid the appearance of uncertainty or risk spilling sensitive details too soon.

More important, The Chinese Negotiator shares scores of subtle, example-rich insights about Chinese versus non-Chinese psychology in language that brilliantly transcends stereotypes. These lessons could help almost anyone get along in any Sino-foreign environment, whether as a negotiator, a boss or a common employee. The authors point out that overlooking these subtleties during a contract negotiation can quietly offend the Chinese side, which in turn might sign with a competing foreign firm or plot revenge against the offending party.

March and Wu note, for example, that Western negotiators bristle too obviously when deals don't come together soon enough and do not see how non-business chats over alcohol can improve later negotiations. Chinese, for their part, are as flexible as street-market vendors, take a shared-destiny view of joint ventures, and may look to an absentee boss far removed from the negotiations for serious contract decisions, even after deals are struck at the table. They also subconsciously use any of 36 classic Chinese war stratagems that promote deception, secrecy and elaborate mind games to get what they want.

The book's top lessons, threads that bind one chapter to the next, are that interpersonal trust must precede business, that the Chinese value a harmonious negotiation atmosphere (despite their own poker faces), and that negotiations can last much longer than foreigners expect - though we're never told exactly how long. Another piece of repeated advice: foreigners should avoid talking too much about business in opening negotiation rounds so the parties first get to know each other personally.

The Chinese Negotiator leaves one big red elephant in the negotiating room. That's the profound influence of China's government. Almost every day of my seven years in China, as a reporter or a colleague or a teacher or just someone in the street, I met with the nationalism of modern Chinese people. Much of their distrust, resentment or superiority toward foreigners stems directly from the government's relentless teachings in school or through media that Chinese are historically superior people victimized by foreigners.

The government promotes especially strong anti-Japan sentiment and the questionable idea that ethnic Chinese inside and outside China are all the same except that outside they're lucky to be rich. Before 2000, it was legal to overcharge foreigners at government tourist landmarks. These prejudices are not checked at the negotiation-room doors. Local courts normally back the Chinese side in any dispute, another sign of us-versus-them nationalism. And because of China's non-consultative policymaking and lack of public participation in government, many laws touted as business-friendly via government-run English-language media are vague, redundant and even contradictory.

Cole or the Hong Kong engineering firm might have blundered in their negotiations, but they could easily have been cheated out of sheer resentment, or fallen into the red through a legal gray area. The Chinese Negotiator might have noted the state's formative role in Chinese psychology and advised companies on how to reach sound, cheat-resistant business agreements that have the flexibility to withstand undulating local laws on key matters such as currency conversion and patent protection.

Key foreign countries are also missing from the book. Most of the advisory anecdotes feature firms from developed Western countries, but what about growing powerhouses such South Korea or Russia, where business cultures differ, likewise stereotypes held by the Chinese? And if I were a sole proprietor magician or hotelier, rather than a company with a big staff, I'd want to know how to negotiate against a complex Chinese organization without hiring a team. Is there a network of negotiators for hire?

Finally, The Chinese Negotiator could further explore China with a few more anecdotes from the book's namesake. Experienced contract negotiators at the foreign-affairs offices of state companies or the poker-faced Chinese bargainers who quietly evaluate their foreign counterparts across a table might tell revealing stories about what it's like on the home court.

Influential Chinese people do not always open up to foreign writers, but some will talk, especially if contacted through personal connections. Chinese sources also might offer details on how they arrange room, board and meeting venues for the negotiators - and who pays for it all. Maybe we would learn that some Chinese publisher is about to release "The Foreign Negotiator".

The Chinese Negotiator: How to Succeed in the World's Largest Market by Robert M March and Wu Su-hua. Kodansha International, February 2007. ISBN-10: 4770030282. Price US$24.95 hardback, 280 pages.

Michael Jen-Siu is a wire-service reporter living in Taipei.

Chinese search engine service provider Baidu.com says it will soon launch a barrier-free service for the blind and those with visual disabilities.

Baidu began developing the barrier-free project about six months ago and named it "The Blind's Lane Program". This program has reportedly received great support from the China Blind People's Association.

China has about 5 million blind people, accounting for 18% of the world's total. It also has more than 6 million people who have visual disabilities.

Although there is a lot of software for the blind to use, most of the software are not specially designed for the blind to approach and search Internet information. Baidu says this is why it has launched this new service.

AutoMart-China, the largest independent auto aftermarket company in Beijing, has signed a Letter of Intent with Beijing Wan Quan He Automotive Certificate Company as its first step in being able to perform mandatory safety and exhaust inspections at its repair and maintenance centers.

AutoMart said the non-binding LOI is with Wan Quan He, which is authorized by Beijing's municipal government and Ministry of Communications to conduct annual tests for cars and motorcycles in the capital city. WQH is also authorized to conduct motor vehicle exhaust testing, as authorized by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China.

AutoMart, with more than 450 employees serving the auto aftermarket in Beijing, is currently working to finalize the agreement and add mandatory safety and exhaust inspections to its other services, including auto repair, parts, and insurance, said the company's Chairman and CEO Pang Guisan.

"Annual safety and exhaust inspections are required by the government for the more than 4 million cars and motorcycles in Beijing," Pang said. "AutoMart is excited about the opportunity to partner with WQH and serve this emerging market. AutoMart plans to work with WHQ in order to gain access to virtually millions of owners of cars and motorcycles, and be able to cross-market our other repair, parts and insurance products to them."

China's millions of rural migrant workers will have their own representatives seated in the national people's congress if a draft resolution on lawmaker elections for next year's National People's Congress is approved by legislators at the ongoing 10th NPC annual session.

The draft resolution on deputy election for the 11th NPC has been submitted to lawmakers for deliberation, stipulating that provinces and municipalities with a large population of rural migrant workers should have an NPC deputy quota for them.

Sheng Huaren, vice chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, told about 3,000 legislators that China's migrant labor population has become larger and is growing into one of the mainstays of the country's work force. Sheng says they should have a number of lawmakers to represent their rights and interests.

The draft resolution also proposed an increase of lawmakers from farmers and industrial workers, saying that the NPC deputy numbers from these groups is dropping in recent years.

China has about 200 million migrant workers, of whom more than 120 million work in cities and the remainder work in villages. Official figures show 13 million farmers will become migrant workers each year if China reaches the urbanization target of 56%.

New research reveals real pay increases for workers in the United States will substantially lag those in China and India in 2007.

The Hay Group says their new research shows says administrative, professional and senior management employees are predicted to see real increases of just 1.4%, versus increases approaching 8% in high-growth economies.

"Much like their colleagues in Europe, US employees will be seeing relatively modest increases in base salaries when compared to the emerging economies," said Iain Fitzpatrick, General Manager of Hay Group's US Reward Information Services. "Projected 2007 increases are fairly consistent with real increases seen in the US over the past several years."

Hay Group's Global Pay Day analysis, compiled using Hay Group PayNet, one of the world's most comprehensive global pay databases, predicts real base salary increases for administrative, professional and senior management in 2007 for 50 countries worldwide, based on employers' projections once inflation has been considered. The PayNet database contains 7 million individual records from 13,000 organizations in 19 job families across a number of industries.

"The wealth created by rapid, focused economic development is resulting in a pay boom for Chinese and Indian workers, who will enjoy some of the largest real pay increases worldwide in 2007," said Hern Yin Goh, Director of Hay Group Reward Information Services in Shanghai.

China tops the tables for each of the three job categories, with a predicted 7.9% increase for administrative workers, 7.8% for professionals and 8.9% for senior management. High pay increases in India last year ¡ª 7.2% across the board ¡ª look set to continue into 2007. The country boasts the second highest pay increase predictions for 2007, with increases of 6.2% forecast across the three job levels. Senior managers can anticipate a real increase of 6.9%, professionals and administrators 5.9% each.