Recruiting in China

HONG KONG, May 16 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's jobless rate probably stayed at 3.4 percent in February-April as the pace of hiring slowed amid uncertainties over the economy, a Reuters survey shows.

"The economy was still doing well in the first quarter but employers became more cautious about hiring due to the weakening external environment," said Peng Chen, an economist at JPMorgan.

The unemployment rate has fallen much further than expected, hitting 3.3 percent, a 10-year low, in December-February, as a strong economy has created jobs and a tight labour market. However, the rate crept back up to 3.4 percent in January-March as hiring slowed sharply.

The trade sector is one of the territory's biggest employers and a possible recession in the United States -- Hong Kong's biggest export market after mainland China -- is a particular concern.

As the territory's exports are expected to slow this year, economists see economic growth falling to 4.6 percent, according to a Reuters poll, from 6.3 percent last year and average annual growth of 7.2 percent over the past four years.

In April, growth in business in the private sector virtually stalled and new orders fell for the first time in more than three years, according to the Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index, prompting companies to add few staff. Wages however continued to increase, although at the slowest pace since September.

Demand for professionals across sectors is still buoyant amid a shortage of suitable qualified people and the retail and tourism sectors continue to hire amid strong consumption, which has been underpinned by wage growth.

The unemployment rate has fallen from a record 8.5 percent four years ago. Economists say the economy is now close to full employment and while the jobless rate should stay below 4 percent this year it is likely to keep fluctuating.

Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February-April (percent): Daiwa Research Institute 3.3 ING Financial Mkts 3.3 Bank of East Asia 3.4 DBS Bank 3.4 JPMorgan 3.4 Standard Chartered Bank 3.4 Hang Seng Bank 3.5 UBS 3.5